The recent conflict in Sudan stems from a disagreement over how RSF paramilitaries should be incorporated into the Sudanese army. Hrealdviews understands that tensions boiled over after the RSF started deploying members around the country and in Khartoum without the expressed permission of the army.
At the heart of the clashes are two men:
Sudan’s military ruler and head of the army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General
Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (widely known as Hemedti), the country’s deputy and head
of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group.
Until recently Dagalo and Burhan, who played
crucial roles in overthrowing former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019
and the subsequent military coup in 2021, were allies.
The violence currently unfolding in Sudan is
part of a troubling pattern of coups and political instability that has plagued
the country since its independence from the UK in 1956. Sudan has experienced
more coups than any other African nation, with six military coups occurring in
1958, 1969, 1985, 1989, 2019, and 2021.
The 1989 coup brought Omar al-Bashir to
power, who ruled as a dictator for three decades, characterised by secret
police, repression of opposition, and corruption.
Bashir's ouster in 2019 raised hopes for a
transition to democratic rule, but those hopes were quickly dashed when the
military took power in 2021, citing the need to avert a civil war. This pattern
of resistance to civilian rule and military takeovers is not unusual in Sudan's
history, with the army playing a central role in political transitions.
The recent violence is part of this troubling
history, adding to the trope of Sudan as a "failed African nation."
Despite hopes for democratic rule, the violence and instability continue, and
the current situation is seen as a battle for personal power rather than an
ideological struggle. This makes it all the more concerning for the stability
and future of the country.
A coalition of civilian groups in Sudan has
called for an immediate cessation of the violence, as have the US and other
international observers. However, with both sides entrenched in their
positions, a quick resolution seems unlikely.
The internal conflict between the two
opposing factions, namely the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF),
a paramilitary group after the 2021 coup which removed the transitional
government that had been established following the downfall of former dictator
Omar al-Bashir in 2019. As a result of the coup, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan,
the coup leader, has become the de facto leader of Sudan.
The two men central to the dispute are
General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, who rose to power within the RSF in the early
2000s as the leader of the Janjaweed militia, responsible for human rights
atrocities in Darfur. Dagalo continued to climb the ranks of the RSF, where he
currently serves as its leader. Under his leadership, the RSF has been accused
of brutal crackdowns on pro-democracy activists, including the massacre of 120
protesters in 2019.
During the Darfur conflict in the early
2000s, Dagalo led Sudan's infamous Janjaweed forces, which were implicated in
numerous human rights abuses and atrocities. Following international
condemnation, Bashir transformed the group into paramilitary units known as the
Border Intelligence Units. In 2007, the units became part of the country's
intelligence services, and in 2013, Bashir established the RSF, which is a
paramilitary organisation overseen by him and commanded by Dagalo.
General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, as the head of
the army in power and the de facto head of government for the last two years,
has also been heavily criticized by human rights groups for overseeing
crackdowns on pro-democracy activists. Both men have been viewed as obstacles
to Sudan's transition to civilian democracy, although the ongoing conflict
between them appears to be a personal power struggle.
Under the leadership of General Mohammed
Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have
collaborated with the Sudanese army to maintain military control in the
country.
After
the removal of former dictator Omar al-Bashir, a transitional government was
established, and elections were set to take place by the end of 2023, with
General Abdel-Fattah Burhan promising to transition to civilian rule.
However, both Burhan and Dagalo appear to
have no intention of relinquishing their power and are embroiled in a power
struggle that turned violent on April 15, 2023. This has led to gunfights
between the RSF and the Sudanese army in Khartoum and other parts of the
country, causing a spike in violence over three days.
The violence stemmed from a dispute over how
the RSF should be integrated into the Sudanese army, with tensions rising after
the RSF deployed members without the army's authorisation.
The situation in Sudan has been brewing for
some time, with concerns over the RSF's attempts to gain control over the
country's economic assets, particularly its gold mines. These recent events are
detrimental to Sudan's stability and the chances of a peaceful transition to
democratic governance.
In a
nutshell, the conflict in Sudan is between the Sudanese army and the RSF is a
power struggle between two individuals who are determined to retain their
influence and control in the corridors of power, resisting the transition to an
elected government.
With two powerful men, each with a military
at their disposal, fighting for power, the worry is that the fighting will
intensify, destabilising the region and jeopardising Sudan's relations with its
neighbours.
Impact on
neighbours
Egypt and Sudan share a complex history of
politics, trade, culture, and the Nile's shared waters. Egypt is worried about
political unrest in Sudan since President al-Bashir's removal and President el-Sisi's
close relationship with General al-Burhan. Egypt and Sudan both rely on the
Nile's freshwater, so they are concerned about threats to their supplies from
the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The two countries are seeking to regulate
the dam's operation, and any tension could disrupt their efforts.
The largest foreign community in Egypt is
Sudanese, including 60,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Many Sudanese have
contributed to the tensions in the Darfur region, and some have served as
mercenaries in the Central African Republic.
Chad has taken in around 400,000 displaced
Sudanese from previous conflicts, and about 20,000 more refugees have arrived
since the latest fighting began. Chad
faces concerns about the crisis spreading across its border, where refugees
from Darfur live.
South Sudan exports its oil output via a pipeline through Sudan, and fighting in Sudan could hamper logistics and transport links. About 800,000 South Sudanese refugees live in Sudan, and any mass return could put a strain on vital aid to over 2 million displaced people in South Sudan.
Skirmishes periodically flare along disputed parts of Sudan's
border with Ethiopia, and tensions exist over the Al-Fashqa border. Many Eritrean refugees living in northern
Ethiopia fled from their camps during the Tigray War from 2020 to 2022.
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