By Matt Williams
Indian airstrikes deep into Pakistan and retaliatory shelling across the border have put the subcontinent on edge once again, with many fearing a further escalation between the two nuclear neighbours.
Pakistan warned it would
respond “at a time, place and manner of its choosing.” Meanwhile, shelling by
Pakistan across the “line of control” separating the Indian- and Pakistani-controlled
parts of Kashmir killed 15 people, India says.
It represents the most serious
fighting between the two countries in decades. But Kashmir has long been a
source of tension between India and Pakistan, as articles from The
Conversation’s archive explain.
Where
is Kashmir?
1.
The roots of the conflict
The dispute over Kashmir, which
sits on the northern tip of the Indian subcontinent and borders Pakistan to the
west, can be traced back to the partition of India in 1947 and the policies of
colonial British rule that preceded it.
As Sumit Ganguly, an expert of
Indian politics and foreign policy, explains, the British gave the rulers of
nominally autonomous princely states the choice of which country they wanted to
join post-partition: Muslim-majority Pakistan or Hindu-majority India. This put
Maharaja Hari Singh, the monarch of Jammu and Kashmir, in a tricky position –
he was a Hindu ruling over a predominantly Muslim population.
“India, which was created as a
secular state, wanted to incorporate Kashmir to demonstrate that a
predominantly Muslim region could thrive in a Hindu-majority country committed
to secularism. Pakistan, on the other hand, sought Kashmir because of its
physical proximity and Muslim majority,” writes Ganguly.
While Singh was still
deliberating, a rebellion broke out in Kashmir, with newly independent Pakistan
giving the insurgents support. India sent troops in on condition that Singh
formally accede to India, and the first of four Indian-Pakistan wars began in
1947. It ended with Pakistan gaining control of a third of the disputed region.
“Neither country has wholly
reconciled itself to Kashmir’s status. India claims the state in its entirety,
as it became a part of its territory legally. Pakistan, however, has
historically held the view that Kashmir was ceded to India by a ruler who did
not represent its majority Muslim population. Indeed, this dispute between two
nuclear-armed powers remains a potential global flashpoint,” Ganguly adds.
2.
More than a border dispute
But to see Kashmir solely
through the lens of Indian-Pakistani rivalry would do the complicated conflict
a disservice. Often neglected in this reading is the views of many Kashmiris
themselves, many of whom would prefer independence.
Chitralekha Zutshi, a professor
of history at William & Mary, notes that the desire for autonomy by groups
in the region has resulted in numerous independence movements and repeated
uprisings.
Pakistan has supported some of
these movements, a fact that India has seized upon to “write off unrest in the
Kashmir Valley as a byproduct of its territorial dispute with Pakistan,” Zutshi
writes. But in so doing, the grievances of “an entire generation of young
Kashmiris” who view India as “an occupying power” have been ignored, the
scholar continues.
She concludes: “The Kashmir
dispute cannot be resolved bilaterally by India and Pakistan alone – even if
the two countries were willing to work together to resolve their differences.
This is because the conflict has many sides.”
3.
A water war?
Backing up the claim that the
views of Kashmiris are often neglected is the fact that the Indus Waters Treaty
– a crucial decades-old agreement that allows Pakistan and India to share water
use from the region’s rivers – was drawn up largely without the input of Kashmiri
people, writes Fazlul Haq, a research scientist at Ohio State University.
Haq, who helps run the
university’s Indus Basin Water Project, explains that even before the latest
flare-up of violence, a dispute over the treaty was causing tension between
India and Pakistan. The problem was that the original treaty, hailed as a
success for many years, didn’t take into account the impact of climate change.
Melting glaciers have put the long-term sustainability of the treaty at risk,
jeopardizing the water supply for more than 300 million people.
4.
On the precipice of a new war?
There have been four full-scale
conflicts between India and Pakistan: in 1947, 1965, 1971 and 1999.
But since the turn of the
millennium, cross-border skirmishes in Kashmir have largely been contained, in
part due to external pressure from the United States and others who fear the
economic and regional consequences of a conflict between the nuclear-armed
neighbors.
International relations expert
Ian Hall, of Griffith University in Australia, writes that the calculus has
changed a little. He notes that there is little economic cost to escalation,
with “practically no trade between India and Pakistan.”
The main concern for both sides
now is “the political cost they would suffer from not taking military action,”
Hall adds.
5.
The need for a Pakistan-India hotline
During past crises between
Pakistan and India, Washington has played an important role in deescalating
tensions.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s
recent comments that he believes Pakistan and India will “figure it out one way
or the other” suggests this is one occasion in which the U.S. may take a back
seat.
But as Syed Ali Zia Jaffery at
the University of Lahore and Nicholas John Wheeler at the University of
Birmingham in the U.K. note, that creates a problem.
“The absence of a trusted
confidential line of communication between the leaders of India and Pakistan is
a major barrier to empathetic communication. It prevents the two reaching a
proper appreciation of shared vulnerabilities that is so critical to crisis
de-escalation,” they write.
Their article uses the example
of the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 to tout the importance of what the two
scholars describe as “empathetic channels of communication.” U.S. President
John F. Kennedy and his Soviet counterpart, Nikita Khrushchev, “exchanged a
series of letters in which they acknowledged and expressed their shared
vulnerability to nuclear war,” Jaffery and Wheeler write. Establishing mutual
empathy and a bond of trust were critical to the peaceful resolution of the
crisis.
“Such a hotline between the
highest levels of Indian and Pakistani diplomacy would be an important step
towards preventing these crises from spinning out of control. More crucially,
it could play a pivotal role in managing crises when they do occur, offering a
vital channel for reassurance and de-escalation,” Jaffery and Wheeler add.
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