By Chee Meng Tan
Donald Trump has a knack of antagonising and confusing China. During his first presidential campaign, he accused China of “raping” the US through unfair trade practices. But later in his first term as US president, Trump also called Chinese president Xi Jinping a “good friend”.
Throughout the 2024
presidential campaign Trump suggested he would be tough on China in a second
term, and days away from becoming president nothing looks likely to change.
Trump has suggested he could
raise tariffs on all Chinese goods up to 60%, and is likely to appoint Marco
Rubio as secretary of state and Mark Waltz as national security adviser. Both
are “China hawks” who believe that Washington should toughen its stance against
Beijing, and view China as a national security threat to the US.
Beijing has tried preparing for
a tougher US climate, which may explain why it has increased trade with
south-east Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East in recent years. Therefore,
China may be looking to engage the west, at least the non-US part of it, for a
range of economic, political and security reasons.
The Chinese government could
see Ottawa as a solution to help meet China’s energy needs, as Canada is rich
in oil, coal and iron. It could even warm up to Canberra, as Australia has
abundant lithium, which is crucial for making electric vehicles.
Ultimately though, China might
need to maintain ties and improve its relationship with the EU. The EU holds
the distinction of being China’s second largest trading partner, and exports to
the EU have soared in the past few years. This occurred as Beijing pivoted away
from manufacturing the “old three”
exports –- household appliances, furniture and clothing – to the
tech-intensive “new three”, in electric vehicles, lithium-ion batteries and
solar cells.
China’s new products
Since the “new three” represent
an important component in China’s economic growth, the EU, as a significant
consumer of such products, represents a crucial market for China. Nonetheless,
the EU is not an easy win for China.
Brussels has accused Beijing of
unfairly subsidising Chinese electric vehicle firms and has imposed tariffs of
up to 45.3% on these goods since late October 2024. But China may have
substantial room to smooth relations with the European bloc, and there are
signs that this is happening. However, the recent row over China’s potential
involvement with anchor dragging in the Baltic Sea to damage communication
cables will not have helped matters.
Fortunately for China, the EU
is not a united front. Voting patterns on tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles
in 2024 reveal an interesting fact: ten nations supported them, five were
against and 12 abstained.
Potentially, Beijing could sway
detractors and fence-sitters in Brussels by lowering barriers to entry for EU
firms coming into the Chinese market, and reduce subsidies for Chinese firms
competing in Europe.
China has a partnership of “no
limits” with Russia, and this has proven to be a concern for the west, and
particularly Europe. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022,
Nato declared that: “The People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) stated ambitions
and coercive policies challenge our interests, security and values.”
Growing concerns over China’s
activities in Europe and Asia may have prompted Nato to invite Australia,
Japan, New Zealand and South Korea (known as the Asia Pacific 4 or AP4), to
Nato’s June 2022 summit. While European officials have dismissed a formal
alliance between Nato and Asian states, there are increasingly frequent
discussions and meetings between both sides.
Beijing could help alleviate
western fears that China is a security threat by resolving one of Europe’s
thorniest geopolitical issues: the Ukraine-Russia war, although that is looking
unlikely. However, an attempt to help create a peace deal could lessen western
perception of the “Chinese threat”.
Engaging with the US
China will continue to engage
with the US. Aside from being the third largest trading partner with China
after the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) and the EU, the
western superpower remains a technological, economic and military powerhouse.
Former US president John F.
Kennedy once wrote: “When written in Chinese, the word "crisis” is
composed of two characters – one represents danger and one represents
opportunity.“ If China plays its cards right, the danger that Trump appears to
represent to its economy might not be as significant as first thought. Trump,
after all, is not always predictable.
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