The World Bank has forecasted persistent insecurity, armed conflict, and deteriorating livelihoods in several local government areas across Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states, and the far north of Adamawa State in Nigeria until May 2024.
This
prediction comes amid poor macroeconomic conditions hindering access to
agricultural inputs in the country, subsequently affecting cereal production,
as revealed in the latest 'Food Security Update' by the global bank.
The estimated cereal production
for the 2023/24 crop year in West and Central Africa is expected to be 76.5
million tons, reflecting a two per cent decrease from the previous season but a
three per cent rise from the average over the last five years. Chad, Mali,
Niger, and Nigeria are anticipated to contribute significantly to this decline,
with the World Bank attributing the decrease to dry spells, insecurity limiting
access to cropland, and poor macroeconomic conditions restricting agricultural
inputs.
The report emphasizes that
persistent insecurity and armed conflict will lead to Crisis (IPC Phase 3)
conditions from November to May 2024 in specific regions, notably affecting
local government areas in Borno, Kaduna, Katsina, Sokoto, Yobe, Zamfara states,
and the far north of Adamawa state in Nigeria. Similar challenges are projected
for regions in Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Chad, Mali, and Niger.
The World Bank's latest update
also highlights the global concern of high inflation, particularly in low- and
middle-income countries. Between August and November, these nations grappled
with inflation rates exceeding 5 per cent. The report underscores that Africa,
North America, Latin America, South Asia, Europe, and Central Asia are among
the most affected regions. Notably, food price inflation has surpassed overall
inflation by 74 per cent in 167 countries.
In November, Nigeria recorded a
headline inflation rate of 28.20 per cent, with food inflation soaring to 32.84
per cent, underscoring the significant economic challenges faced by the
country.
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