China, North Korea, India, Pakistan, UK reportedly increasing their nuclear weapons arsenals
The world’s nine nuclear-armed states are
continuing to modernise their nuclear arsenals, with China’s stockpile of
nuclear warheads rising by 17 percent in 2022, according to a new report by
Sweden-based Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
In the SIPRI Yearbook 2023 released on
Monday, June 12, the think tank estimated China’s nuclear arsenal had increased
from 350 warheads in January 2022 to 410 in January 2023, and that it was
“expected to keep growing”.
The report added that China could potentially
have at least as many intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as either the
United States or Russia by 2030.
“China
has started a significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal,” Hans M Kristensen,
associate senior fellow with SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction programme and
director of the nuclear information project at the Federation of American
Scientists (FAS) said in a statement.
“It is increasingly difficult to square this
trend with China’s declared aim of having only the minimum nuclear forces
needed to maintain its national security.”
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the
world’s largest fighting force but China is also engaged in an effort to
modernise its military equipment and weaponry.
Globally, SIPRI estimated there were 12,512
nuclear warheads in the world in January 2023, with about 9,576 in military
stockpiles for potential use—86 more than in January 2022.
Of those, an estimated 3,844 warheads were
deployed with missiles and aircraft, and about 2,000—nearly all of them from
Russia or the US—maintained in a state of high operational alert, meaning that
they were fitted to missiles or held at airbases hosting nuclear bombers.
SIPRI noted that despite China’s increasing
nuclear stockpile, the US and Russia together possess almost 90 percent of the
world’s nuclear weapons.
Among the world’s other nuclear states, SIPRI
noted India and Pakistan also appeared to be expanding their nuclear arsenals,
developing new types of nuclear delivery systems.
“While Pakistan remains the main focus of
India’s nuclear deterrent, India appears to be placing growing emphasis on
longer-range weapons, including those capable of reaching targets across
China,” the report said.
North Korea, also made a priority of its
nuclear programme in 2022, SIPRI observed.
The think tank estimates Pyongyang, which
last tested a nuclear weapon in 2017, has assembled about 30 warheads and has
enough fissile material for between 50 and 70 warheads, both significantly
higher than the estimates in January 2022.
The
SIPRI Yearbook said the United Kingdom’s warhead stockpile was expected to grow
after the government announced in 2021 that it was raising its limit from 225
to 260 warheads.
France
is also continuing with plans to develop a third-generation nuclear-powered
ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) and a new air-launched cruise missile, as
well as to refurbish and upgrade existing systems, SIPRI said.
Israel—which does not publicly acknowledge
possessing nuclear weapons—is also believed to be modernising its nuclear
arsenal.
“Most of the nuclear-armed states are
hardening their rhetoric about the importance of nuclear weapons, and some are
even issuing explicit or implicit threats about potentially using them,” said
Matt Korda, associate researcher with SIPRI’s weapons of mass destruction
programme and senior research associate with the FAS Nuclear Information
Project. “This elevated nuclear competition has dramatically increased the risk
that nuclear weapons might be used in anger for the first time since World War
II.”
SIPRI
noted that transparency regarding nuclear forces of the US and Russia had
declined in both countries as a result of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
In February, Russia said it was suspending
its participation in the New START Treaty, a key pillar of US-Russian nuclear
arms control.
The Yearbook is SIPRI’s annual assessment of
the state of armaments, disarmament and security around the world.
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