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The recent conflict in Sudan stems from a disagreement over how RSF paramilitaries should be incorporated into the Sudanese army. Hrealdviews understands that tensions boiled over after the RSF started deploying members around the country and in Khartoum without the expressed permission of the army.

 

At the heart of the clashes are two men: Sudan’s military ruler and head of the army Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (widely known as Hemedti), the country’s deputy and head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitary group.

 

Until recently Dagalo and Burhan, who played crucial roles in overthrowing former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir in 2019 and the subsequent military coup in 2021, were allies.

 

The violence currently unfolding in Sudan is part of a troubling pattern of coups and political instability that has plagued the country since its independence from the UK in 1956. Sudan has experienced more coups than any other African nation, with six military coups occurring in 1958, 1969, 1985, 1989, 2019, and 2021.

 

The 1989 coup brought Omar al-Bashir to power, who ruled as a dictator for three decades, characterised by secret police, repression of opposition, and corruption.

 

Bashir's ouster in 2019 raised hopes for a transition to democratic rule, but those hopes were quickly dashed when the military took power in 2021, citing the need to avert a civil war. This pattern of resistance to civilian rule and military takeovers is not unusual in Sudan's history, with the army playing a central role in political transitions.

 

The recent violence is part of this troubling history, adding to the trope of Sudan as a "failed African nation." Despite hopes for democratic rule, the violence and instability continue, and the current situation is seen as a battle for personal power rather than an ideological struggle. This makes it all the more concerning for the stability and future of the country.

 

A coalition of civilian groups in Sudan has called for an immediate cessation of the violence, as have the US and other international observers. However, with both sides entrenched in their positions, a quick resolution seems unlikely.

 

The internal conflict between the two opposing factions, namely the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group after the 2021 coup which removed the transitional government that had been established following the downfall of former dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019. As a result of the coup, General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, the coup leader, has become the de facto leader of Sudan.

 

The two men central to the dispute are General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, who rose to power within the RSF in the early 2000s as the leader of the Janjaweed militia, responsible for human rights atrocities in Darfur. Dagalo continued to climb the ranks of the RSF, where he currently serves as its leader. Under his leadership, the RSF has been accused of brutal crackdowns on pro-democracy activists, including the massacre of 120 protesters in 2019.

 

During the Darfur conflict in the early 2000s, Dagalo led Sudan's infamous Janjaweed forces, which were implicated in numerous human rights abuses and atrocities. Following international condemnation, Bashir transformed the group into paramilitary units known as the Border Intelligence Units. In 2007, the units became part of the country's intelligence services, and in 2013, Bashir established the RSF, which is a paramilitary organisation overseen by him and commanded by Dagalo.

 

General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, as the head of the army in power and the de facto head of government for the last two years, has also been heavily criticized by human rights groups for overseeing crackdowns on pro-democracy activists. Both men have been viewed as obstacles to Sudan's transition to civilian democracy, although the ongoing conflict between them appears to be a personal power struggle.

 

Under the leadership of General Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti, the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have collaborated with the Sudanese army to maintain military control in the country.

 

 After the removal of former dictator Omar al-Bashir, a transitional government was established, and elections were set to take place by the end of 2023, with General Abdel-Fattah Burhan promising to transition to civilian rule.

 

However, both Burhan and Dagalo appear to have no intention of relinquishing their power and are embroiled in a power struggle that turned violent on April 15, 2023. This has led to gunfights between the RSF and the Sudanese army in Khartoum and other parts of the country, causing a spike in violence over three days.

 

The violence stemmed from a dispute over how the RSF should be integrated into the Sudanese army, with tensions rising after the RSF deployed members without the army's authorisation.

 

The situation in Sudan has been brewing for some time, with concerns over the RSF's attempts to gain control over the country's economic assets, particularly its gold mines. These recent events are detrimental to Sudan's stability and the chances of a peaceful transition to democratic governance.

 

 In a nutshell, the conflict in Sudan is between the Sudanese army and the RSF is a power struggle between two individuals who are determined to retain their influence and control in the corridors of power, resisting the transition to an elected government.

 

With two powerful men, each with a military at their disposal, fighting for power, the worry is that the fighting will intensify, destabilising the region and jeopardising Sudan's relations with its neighbours.

 

 

Impact on neighbours

Egypt and Sudan share a complex history of politics, trade, culture, and the Nile's shared waters. Egypt is worried about political unrest in Sudan since President al-Bashir's removal and President el-Sisi's close relationship with General al-Burhan. Egypt and Sudan both rely on the Nile's freshwater, so they are concerned about threats to their supplies from the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. The two countries are seeking to regulate the dam's operation, and any tension could disrupt their efforts.

 

The largest foreign community in Egypt is Sudanese, including 60,000 refugees and asylum seekers. Many Sudanese have contributed to the tensions in the Darfur region, and some have served as mercenaries in the Central African Republic.

 

Chad has taken in around 400,000 displaced Sudanese from previous conflicts, and about 20,000 more refugees have arrived since the latest fighting began.  Chad faces concerns about the crisis spreading across its border, where refugees from Darfur live.

 

South Sudan exports its oil output via a pipeline through Sudan, and fighting in Sudan could hamper logistics and transport links. About 800,000 South Sudanese refugees live in Sudan, and any mass return could put a strain on vital aid to over 2 million displaced people in South Sudan. 

Skirmishes periodically flare along disputed parts of Sudan's border with Ethiopia, and tensions exist over the Al-Fashqa border.  Many Eritrean refugees living in northern Ethiopia fled from their camps during the Tigray War from 2020 to 2022.